tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post1370436818310761142..comments2024-03-12T18:37:16.548-04:00Comments on The Easiest Person to Fool: Responding to Collapse, Part 5: finding a small townIrv Millshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-33237474832354605772019-01-12T20:14:03.283-05:002019-01-12T20:14:03.283-05:00@ Don Hayward
Well, I printed out your "you g...@ Don Hayward<br />Well, I printed out your "you give good advice" comment and sat down and read it carefully. A lot of meat in there, ideas that sparked chains of thought that will be helpful in my writing.<br /><br />And interestingly, I think that Chomsky interview applies to much of what you were saying, at least his frequent references to the degree of effort that is being made to keep people "brainwashed" (my term, not his), and trapped in the system. Most people don't understand what is happening because a huge amount of effort spent to stop them from attaining that understanding, to keep them functioning as good consumers.<br /><br />Of those who have some understand of what is happening, many do not act to save themselves because they are concerned about giving up the opportunities promised by BAU. And in one sense there is something to this--for as long as BAU is capable of providing a living, you'd might as well take advantage of it, or at least not give it up to the extent of rendering oneself destitute. But I think many people could manage the sort of move that I am recommending, without entirely giving up what little BAU has yet to offer.<br /><br />The rest of the reasons you list are valid and it is sad that not moving will leave them in a really bad spot, which many will not survive.<br /><br />Hope is a word that has been badly misused to the point where it is not clear to many people what it really means. There are those who would have us "wish upon a star" and tell us that if we believe enough we'll get what we want. This sort of hope is false and cruel--when it doesn't pay off it blames the unfortunate individual.<br /><br />I would say hope is what you do when there is nothing left to do, when you not longer have any agency left to solve the problems you face, when there is nothing more to do. And many times just the act hoping, of not giving up, will lead you to some sort of solution. But at the same time, you have to keep a clear view of what your agency is and not stop working when there are still things to be done which will help, keeping an eye out for opportunities that may crop up unexpectedly.<br /><br />As you say optimism, if not tempered by realism, can do more harm than good. As with so many things, it is a matter of keep a certain degree of balance.<br /><br />Because I am recommending relocating soon, I don't want to say much about alternatives. People are so eager to hear of a way out that means they don't have to change their way of life, that they will grab onto any faint hope and ignore everything else. <br /><br />I have written that there may be a few areas that are particularly blessed in terms of energy sources and agricultural potential that they may be able to come through collapse largely unscathed and maintain a fairly high level of technology. But as I have looked more closely into what will likely go on in the cities as collapse progresses, I've found it harder to imagine a sustainable urban location of any great size. As well as location and resources, it would require the sort of extensive preparation and organization that no one seems interested in doing.<br /><br />But perhaps you have some insight that has eluded me....<br /><br />Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-72816745879719007632019-01-12T16:21:24.212-05:002019-01-12T16:21:24.212-05:00@ Don Haywrad
I was out walking my dog Monday even...@ Don Haywrad<br />I was out walking my dog Monday evening and slipped on a patch of ice. Bonked my head pretty good and so I've been taking it easy since then and am only now getting around to responding to you.<br /><br />First I'd like to talk about something you brought up on Facebook--a YouTube video interview of Noam Chomsky talking about anarchism. I find these comments often end up being useful in future blog posts and they are a lot easier to find here than on Facebook.<br /><br />Chomsky is a linguist and sadly his main contribution to the field, the idea of a universal grammar, has been largely discredited during the last few years. His political opinions, though, are pretty astute and he makes a lot of good points during this interview.<br /><br />I've been partial to the ideas of anarchism since reading Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" in high school. But once I started working and joined a labour union I became more of an anarcho-communist than a libertarian like Heinlein. So much of what libertarians today support is what I would call "billionairianism"--whatever is good for billionaires. Mainly reducing government regulations and letting them have their way with the economy so they can continue to get richer, without any regard for how that might effect the rest of us. Chomsky uses the term "industrial fuedalism" and I think that is quite apt.<br /><br />But to get back to your comment on the interview, which as near as I can remember was about not setting down precise predictions about how society should work in the future. Chomsky does mention this in the interview, in the context of not forcing people to follow one such prediction rigidly, but rather letting people try many different approaches. And, Of course, I agree with that--it's what I call dissensus, the opposite of consensus, where you let other people go their own way and wish them luck with it, even going to far as to help them, and they extend the same courtesy to you. Or since we are talking abut society, I mean groups of people rather than just individuals. We really don't have a clear idea of what will be the best response to the challenges we face, or what is the best way of organizing the kinds of small communities I think we are going to find ourselves in. We need to try many different approaches, which will work or not work to varying degrees, so that at least some people will make it through. If we try only one approach the odds are that it won't work and no one will make it through.<br /><br />Having said that, though, I feel very strongly that this is no an excuse to not think about the future at all. All of the different, "dissensual" approaches I refer to have to be though up by somebody. A lot of work needs to be put into this, so as to be as well prepared as possible. I am not about to spend much time arguing with those who come up with different ideas than mine, but I am very critical or those who say there is no hope, throw up their arms in despair and go off to waste their time on whatever sort of idle pursuit they prefer.<br /><br />I guess I should make it clear that none of this is directed at you, Don. Just taking the opportunity to blow off some steam pointed in other directions. I'll be back in a moment in another comment, to actually respond to your comment on this blog post.Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-42172800040290938252019-01-12T15:30:25.038-05:002019-01-12T15:30:25.038-05:00@Perran
Thanks for the kinds words. I'm glad ...@Perran <br />Thanks for the kinds words. I'm glad to have been able to confirm your thinking. Over the next few months I'll be continuing with this training thought. Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-48318708355989098722019-01-06T11:33:05.682-05:002019-01-06T11:33:05.682-05:00Irv, you give good advice.
“...picking a town wher...Irv, you give good advice.<br />“...picking a town where you can live while BAU is still working and then picking a town that will also be livable after BAU...”<br />I think yours is a sensible approach and I agree hunting/gathering and living in isolation will not work for long. As I am fond of saying, we are in the “want to” respond stage and most people won’t consider doing anything until they “need to”, which of course comes after the end of BAU. So we are thinking of the minority who not only understand the looming crisis but have decided to prepare in some way. I’m dividing my thinking into four short bursts below, some of which speculates on what divides the minority of “wanters” from the rest, no need to talk about motivation in the “need to” stage.<br />Motivation<br />Understanding – people need to understand the looming disasters and that first means getting their attention. That is one reason I decided on fiction to crack open some doors for the vast majority that won’t read dry blogs and data essays. At least my fiction raises questions and possibilities. I think most people wanting to act now already understand so my effort is to help more see when the crisis is hitting given the absence of aliens, zombies and vampires making it obvious and suggest positive responses. (Mostly group/community based). Planning for the future is problematic except for general community principles. Every place will be different.<br />But why will the majority of those who already see not act?<br />Hindering factors<br />Reluctance to leave the familiar, we feel safer on familiar ground<br />Financial anchors: no money, a job, mortgage and other debt<br />No portable skills<br />Illness: Chronic sufferers are the most vulnerable in our society<br />Family commitments: for the young, raising children and for older wanting to be near family. However, one important factor is that when people mate they usually won’t have discussed responding to collapse. One mate may not understand or want to act.<br />I think one category needs to be looked at separately below.<br />Hope and optimism<br />Ironically, these two feelings work for and against responding.<br />Negatively, we get religious hope that just trusts in magical solutions or the fulfillment of scriptures. This group is mostly beyond help and we need not waste time sermonizing. Some may respond in the need phase but likely that will result in some strange things.<br />Other limiting hope is in the form of “fighting back”; against climate change through environmental action or politically against collapsing capitalism. This engages action that deflects away from an early response to what I see as the inevitable disasters. Much of this will delay response even after the crisis is obvious. Of course, hope and optimism lead many activists to deny that any real crisis is coming.<br />However, to take action now, as you describe in your blogs, hope and optimism is also necessary, and likely few hopeless, pessimistic people would bother to try. We hear, “We are all going to die anyway.” commonly touted as justification for doing nothing.<br />Alternative to immediate relocation<br />We need to keep in mind that there may be urbanised locations that will be sustainable, but not many.<br />There could be a transition to outright moving. That is, doing the searching you suggest and becoming familiar and building some sort of presence in your preferred future location without relocating. This is not as desirable as your suggestions but could serve to overcome some of the hindrances I suggested above. This would require having a good idea of the events that would trigger your immediate flight from an urban area. Many of the blocking factors may not be overcome, even then. We won’t know until after what the “too late” point was.<br />An added reinforcement to your thoughts, once in safety people will need to meet later refugees intelligently. I believe I present my thoughts on this in my novel, After the last Day.<br />Keep writing Irv.<br />Don Haywardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10229684724312837788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-72353463203421316162019-01-05T06:07:11.322-05:002019-01-05T06:07:11.322-05:00I enjoy reading your blog Irv. I've always th...I enjoy reading your blog Irv. I've always thought that in a world that is collapsing you are much better off broke and living in the right area than rich and living in the wrong area. You've more or less confirmed that idea. <br /><br />PerranPerranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10242587872090250959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-81323734484516617702019-01-03T18:53:14.362-05:002019-01-03T18:53:14.362-05:00@ Kevin Hester
I had a look at your blog and I am ...@ Kevin Hester<br />I had a look at your blog and I am familiar with most of the articles and people you refer to. I even agree that the collapse of our current industrial civilization is inevitable.<br /><br />But short term human extinction seems very unlikely to me. Cockroaches have nothing on us, and I think there is excellent reason to believe some people will survive, probably about 10% of us, once the dust has finally settled. That kind of a decrease in population, along with a similar decrease in consumption levels should significantly reduce the stress on the environment.<br /><br />All kinds of people say they don't want to live in a post collapse world, usually because they can't imagine having to give up their toys. It sounds like you've set your toy threshold way lower than most people, but the principle is the same. You say you are not into prepping, but at some point I'd bet you will regret that. Especially since it sounds like you are already in a pretty good position. Sure, the going is definitely going to get tough, but those who have prepared, and are lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, will do much better than those who have thrown up their arms in despair and given up.<br /><br />As a friend of mine says, perseverance is key.Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-80143855787666901472019-01-03T17:19:19.954-05:002019-01-03T17:19:19.954-05:00@ Mike
Mike, I have a lot more respect for you tha...@ Mike<br />Mike, I have a lot more respect for you than you are probably aware of, but nuclear power is one area where it seems we have different opinions. Maybe also the likelihood of a "When the Shit Hits the Fan" event that would see nuclear stations abandoned and left to fail ungracefully.<br />The people who run the local nuclear station mostly live within a few miles of it and have a huge incentive for making sure it gets shut down safely when that becomes necessary. If they hang in there and don't just walk away at the end of the shift, I have good reason to expect that it could be shut down safely and cooled off in a few week to the point where a meltdown would be pretty unlikely. Even if the rest of society has pretty much given up the ghost.<br />That would leave us (and I do mean the local population) with the problem of what to do with all the fuel, spent and otherwise.<br />Joe Clarkson and I had a good discussion of this in the comments section of my last post, part 4 of this series: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=2848841213670110129&postID=7969695679687391174<br />There is a fairly low tech solution to that problem, if one can only get the approval to implement it. Politically speaking, it would be easier if the rest of society had given up the ghost.<br /><br /><br />Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-56392053707130843802019-01-03T17:05:20.271-05:002019-01-03T17:05:20.271-05:00@ Stop Fossil Fuels
I was a big fan of John Michae...@ Stop Fossil Fuels<br />I was a big fan of John Michael Greer when he was writing The Archdruid Report, but Ecosophia doesn't impress me at all. So I'm sure not going to put a link to it on my site. Fortunately, there is a "mirror" site which has all the content of the old Archdruid Report. I have changed the Archdruid link in my Blog List to point to that.Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-75045569141608951612019-01-01T01:45:27.951-05:002019-01-01T01:45:27.951-05:00I live on an island with 21 residents.
I don't...I live on an island with 21 residents.<br />I don't prep, I won't want to live on a planet without the birds and the bees bathing in ionising radiation.<br />https://kevinhester.live/2018/12/28/this-civilisation-is-finished-ruppert-reid-paul-ehrlich-and-jem-bendell/?fbclid=IwAR0jPlf4A2pWjQA4MIUP5TgRxW6G-tQRzuN-86OGfx2riHJnQ6vFN0xDUjQKevin Hesterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17544649247126017710noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-52539816926760217592019-01-01T01:33:43.213-05:002019-01-01T01:33:43.213-05:00Hi Irv, great article, but mate, living near the b...Hi Irv, great article, but mate, living near the biggest nuke in the world is not a good idea! WTSHTF, they wobwo be maintained and are all likely to melt down at dome stage...Mikehttps://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-70879381219569390552018-12-30T20:39:34.402-05:002018-12-30T20:39:34.402-05:00Couldn't find a contact form or email address ...Couldn't find a contact form or email address for you, so posting here: your sidebar link to the Archdruid Report goes to his old site, and can be updated to https://www.ecosophia.net/<br /><br />Thanks for your work!Stop Fossil Fuelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09607757276248735500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-70088068598293997282018-12-29T17:02:39.982-05:002018-12-29T17:02:39.982-05:00@ Frank Schoenburg
Thanks for the kind words. I a...@ Frank Schoenburg<br /><br />Thanks for the kind words. I am glad to have been able to vindicate what you were thinking.<br /><br />In fact, I am not very concerned about living next to a nuclear plant. Of course I have a healthy respect for the hazards presented by radiation, but I am not nearly as afraid of it as many people are. That fear largely arises from ignorance and innumeracy. Small doses of radiation really aren't dangerous.<br /><br />The CANDU reactor design includes a vacuum building which helps control releases of radioactive material in the event of a catastrophic failure, and in any case I live several miles south of the plant along the lake, and the prevailing winds are from the west. <br /><br />Safe longer term storage of spent fuel and high level waste is a concern, mainly because those motivated by fear have so far been successful in blocking perfect workable plans.<br /><br />In the comments to my last post this was discussed at some length:<br />https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=2848841213670110129&postID=7969695679687391174<br />Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-29744377515033356942018-12-29T16:50:05.637-05:002018-12-29T16:50:05.637-05:00@ Joe Clarkson
Yes, when fossil fuels are no long...@ Joe Clarkson<br /><br />Yes, when fossil fuels are no longer readily available, farms will soak up a whole lot of manual labour, even just to supply the local area with food. Forestry and fishing as well. And there will be lots of jobless, hungry people, eager for the opportunity.<br /><br />The reason I didn't organize my class division based on monetary terms is exactly because I too realize there are well off people who aren't completely selfish, and who have valuable skills and experience. If they also own farmland they have an important role to play in our future. But will they be able to accept collapse and adapt to it successfully? That's harder to say.<br /><br />There a a couple of reason I'm not sold on the lifeboat community idea, even though it does sound good on the surface.<br /><br />First, it's expensive. It seems to me it would cost several millions of dollars to acquire the land and set up the physical plant necessary for such a community. Then you'd have to find something profitable enough to do to at least pay the taxes even if you could manage to be completely self sufficient otherwise. Which you likely couldn't.<br /><br />Second, the organization of such a community would be a huge challenge, not because I think it's inherently impossible (far from it) but level of co-operation and just "getting along" is something typical modern people have no experience with and would be hard pressed to learn, especially as long a BAU provides an easy alternative when the going gets tough. Easy enough to get people to join, hard to keep them once they see what's really involved.<br /><br />Third, the kind of people who want to take part in a lifeboat community will likely have an ideology that I crudely refer to a "crunchy", or more politely, "counterculture". Large parts of this ideology are badly out of touch with reality, to the point where they won't survive contact with harsh realities of what they are trying to do. This is great pity, since other parts of that ideology make people willing to leave BAU and try alternatives. <br /><br />At Sharable, I would recommend the Response podcast, https://www.shareable.net/the-response, which talks about people getting together to help each others in disasters. Not easy to find from the front page of that website, I'll admit.<br /><br />The pitfalls of sharing you mention are certainly the kind of thing people need to be aware of, and that only old hands like you, who have learned the hard way, are experts on. And yes, definitely, labour, skills and knowledge are the low hanging fruit when it comes to sharing.<br /><br />Shareable's downfall is it's focus on urban environments, I would agree. <br /><br />I do believe we are going to find ourselves clumping together in groups larger than just single nuclear families, and those clumps clumping together into communities of a few hundred to a few thousand people, in order to cope with collapse. And all that organized from within, voluntarily (also out of necessity), but not dictated from above by any higher authority. <br />Irv Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08030800457536589003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-78175000621393250352018-12-29T14:34:21.476-05:002018-12-29T14:34:21.476-05:00Hi Irv,
Are you concerned about living next to a ...Hi Irv,<br /><br />Are you concerned about living next to a nuclear plant? <br /><br />I was thinking about living in a forest and transitioning to a hunting and gathering lifestyle a while back. The thought that environmental degradation would make that lifestyle and transition much harder today than in the past snapped me out of that daydream. I feel vindicated in my own thought process when I read your viewpoint since it is similar to my own in that regard. Thanks for sharing your thoughts here. I enjoy reading your blog.<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />FrankFrankSchoenburghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04903578726852128008noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-16843264376690031212018-12-29T13:57:24.929-05:002018-12-29T13:57:24.929-05:00I checked out the Sharable link. Of the top ten st...I checked out the Sharable link. Of the top ten stories of 2018, three were related to urban cooperative housing, which is OK but scarcely resilient to the end of the global market economy. I clicked with anticipation on the story titled, "Little Italian villages show the way to a cooperative economy", only to find that it was about turning an entire village into an Airbnb destination.<br /><br />The story about sharing tools (also in an urban environment) seems to be relevant to rural food growers at first, but a little caution is in order. Sharing of equipment can lead to transportation of fungal, bacterial and insect pests from farm to farm if people are not careful. Here in Hawaii we are struggling against the spread of fire ants and a fungus that kills a widespread native tree (ohia), meaning that transport of even small amounts of organic matter between properties is dangerous. I own a 6" capacity wood chipper that I have shared wirh neighbors in the past, but can never do so again without the risk of importing fire ants when it comes back.<br /><br />I think the most important kinds of things people can share relate to knowledge, skills and physical labor. Amish communities are a good example. Sharing of capital assets makes sense from an economic standpoint, but it is fraught with emotional and interpersonal danger, hence the adage, “Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend.” Joe Clarksonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2848841213670110129.post-55757644867756920662018-12-29T01:33:10.999-05:002018-12-29T01:33:10.999-05:00Good advice indeed.
I think your proposed plan f...Good advice indeed. <br /><br />I think your proposed plan for people to move to a small town and keep one foot in BAU and dip the other into serious collapse prep is a good one. As economic times become hard and BAU ends in small towns, jobless residents can drift into the countryside nearby, if only on a daily basis, and become farm workers, for whom demand will increase steadily as high-energy supply chains, and the machines they supply, steadily decline in capacity. The only better place to be would be on a working farm, but industrial farms don't need many people so there are very few places available now.<br /><br />I would have categorized your three levels of financial affluence in strictly monetary terms rather than 'classes', mostly because the word "class" has a long history of pejorative use. But your main point is spot on; having more money gives one more power to make a significant change in circumstance, if not the desire to do so. <br /><br />But you may be selling affluent people short. I know many people who are wealthy enough to buy some acreage in Hawaii, where land is not cheap, but who would also have the experience and attitude to organize as much food production as possible when it becomes necessary. Many of them are my neighbors. It should also be remembered that old time farm families, many of whom have debt free land, would be members of the 1% by net worth yet also have most of the skill set that will be needed in the future. I have plenty of neighbors in that category too.<br /><br />Although I agree with almost all of your post, I am curious as to why you think an eco-village 'lifeboat' community has no future. I would think that a communal group of multiple families, organized around subsistence agriculture on a decent sized piece of land, would be an excellent way to prep for collapse. What am I missing?Joe Clarksonnoreply@blogger.com