Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts

Wednesday, 19 March 2025

The Porcupine Saga, Part 13, The Tour: Part 2

Will Harper, late afternoon, Saturday July 21, 2040

Author's note: This starts a little abruptly, especially if you haven't been following the series. So here is the last bit of episode 12 just to tie things together.


"But after ten years, you're still a going concern," said Will, "so you can't have too many problems."

"Seems not," said Allan. "We make every effort to resolve interpersonal conflicts before they get out of hand, of course. We've all had training on participatory democracy, mediation and things like emotional intelligence. It all helps, and it does work most of the time, except when it doesn't. People being what they are."

"No doubt," said Will. "What's next on this tour?"

Allan stepped back from the fence they'd been leaning on and turn around, pointing north. "Well, that row of buildings is our industrial heartland, so to speak."

"Really?" said Will in a doubtful tone.

"I'm not entirely serious," said Allan with a grin. "We don't have anything on the scale of chemical valley in Sarnia, or the steel mills in Hamilton. But what little we have of that sort is concentrated here. Given your background, I think you'll find this quite interesting."

"Great," said Will. "Let's have a look."


"OK, next stop Industrial Row" said Allan and started off toward the buildings just to the north. "Many of the processes here involve fire and to avoid burning down the rest of our buildings, we put them down wind and a fair distance from anything else. Woodworking, textiles, and papermaking are in the second pole barn. And our sawmill is back near the woodlots."

"So what exactly do we have here?" asked Will, as they stopped in front of a pair of silo like structures."

"Well, these two outfits here at the south end are our charcoal and lime kilns," said Allan. "The one on the right is the lime kiln. It's pretty traditional. Basically just a short silo built from stone with an iron door at the bottom where we put in wood and a hole at the top where we put in limestone. Light the fire and it gets hot enough to change the limestone (calcium carbonate) into lime (calcium oxide) and carbon dioxide. After the fire goes out we rake the ashes and then the lime out the door at the bottom. It can be a filthy thing to operate, even though we put in a cyclone in at the top to spin out most of the particulate matter from the exhaust. The carbon dioxide released is an inherent part of the process, nothing to be done about it. So we make no more than the absolute minimum of lime that we need—mostly for mortar in the stone foundations of our buildings."

"If this is anything like Dad's farm, a fresh crop of limestone comes up with the frost every spring," said Will. "So at least you don't have to worry about supply."

"True. Picking stones on the newly worked fields is a regular activity every spring, just like when you were a kid," said Allan. "You know, one thing to keep in mind about this operation is that we build stuff so that once it's built, it doesn't have to be done again for a long, long time. No planned obsolescence here—just the opposite. Things are designed so that what maintenance is needed can be done easily and we're all careful not to damage things unnecessarily. This reduces our resource use and the wear and tear on our production equipment. And it reduces the amount of work we have to do."

"That's a big difference from the way things were done under capitalism, where planned obsolescence and continual growth were needed to keep the system running," said Will.

"Yep. And an infinite supply of energy and materials, which we don't have. But with all this talk of industry, it's possible that I'm creating a misunderstanding," said Allan.

"In what way?" asked Will.

"About work," replied Allan. "There was a lot of work the first few years. Getting the buildings erected, and the industrial stuff working, setting up gardens, orchards, coppices and such. But even then, we set a precedent of valuing free time rather using those hours to create a bigger surplus. And that's even more true now that the big projects are finished, and we've salted away ample food and such to carry us through bad years."

"So Tom's estimate of 32 hours a week turned out to be true?" asked Will.

"On the average, yes, maybe even somewhat less than that," said Allan. "During planting and harvest or when there is a big project on, people work from dawn to dusk. But that's only a few weeks each year. The rest of the time, there are a few hours of 'shit jobs' each day and then the opportunity to spend time doing stuff you like doing."

"So, what are these shit jobs and how do you get people to do them?" asked Will.

"Things like taking care of the composting toilets, laundry, cooking, weeding the gardens, shovelling snow and feeding the heating stoves in the winter," said Allan. "It's strange what some people like doing and others don't. But if you're not feeling like working at all, odds are that someone will come looking for an hour or two of help with a job you'd rather have avoided. Best to be seen as willing in that case, or you'll get stuck regularly helping with the very worst jobs. For most people, sitting around doing nothing gets boring after a while anyway and being helpful turns out to be enjoyable."

"I've noticed that most people develop a whole different attitude towards work when they aren't being forced to do it just to get money for rent and groceries.," said Will.

"That does make a big difference. Also, you'd be amazed at the things people like doing and work hard at, voluntarily," said Allan. "Anyway, carrying on... the charcoal kiln, the one on the left, isn't actually a traditional kiln but something a little more modern and efficient," said Allan. "Nothing fancy though—just a big steel pot with a fire underneath it. Plus some brick walls and insulation to keep the heat where we need it. The pot is moderately air tight, so when we heat up the wood inside it turns into charcoal instead of burning. The gases produced in the process are flammable and we pipe them down to the fire and burn them, giving us some additional heat so that it takes less wood.

"The scaffolding around them both gives us to access the top and between the two is a crane for hoisting things into place. And in the case of the charcoal setup, taking the pot down once the run is over."

"It looks... I don't know... very industrial," said Will.

"Ha ha," said Allan. "Does the job, though The first building past the kilns contains our foundry, forge and welding shop."

Beyond the kilns, Will observed a squat building, which didn't seem overly large considering what Allan said it contained. It had a field stone and lime mortar foundation, rammed earth walls and sheet steel roof. A big chimney was built into the nearest end of the building and a couple of stove pipes stuck out through the roof near the far end. They walked along the west side of the building and stopped in front of a big double door.

"I'd like a look inside," said Will, "but I'm guessing we don't have time for that today?"

"Oh, I think we have time for a quick peek," said Allan, stepping forward to open one of the doors. "For more detail, you'd be better to come back another day when this stuff is in use and there's someone to show you around. Which, by the way, I think they'd be glad to do."

"OK," said Will, stepping forward to stand beside Allan and look inside.

"In the wall on the right is our charcoal fired crucible furnace and the blower that force feeds it to get the temperature high enough to melt iron," said Allan. "Various sizes of crucibles are sitting on the shelf to the right of the furnace. Just pots made of clay and graphite, which can stand the heat of the iron we melt in them. We can melt about 50 pounds at a time in the biggest crucible. And on the left side is a stack of wooden molds and a box of casting sand."

"That all makes sense," said Will. "What's that contraption in front of the furnace?"

"That's just a big set of tongs that grip the crucible to set it into the furnace and take it out once the metal has melted," said Allan. "Hung, as you can see, from the rafters on chains."

"Right. And I can see the roof framing is all steel too," said Will. "I imagine you get enough sparks flying around here to set wood framing on fire."

"We sure do," said Allan. "Like the sheet steel for the roofs, we picked the I-beams up cheap from businesses that were shutting down. We considered tile for the roofing, but at that point clay was a rarer resource than structural steel.

"Anyway, in the back corner on the right is our forge. And next to it a power hammer, and a small rolling and wire drawing mill."

"And in the corner nearest to us is your welding table?" said Will. He took a step inside to get a better look and took in a nice assortment of electric welding equipment, a plasma cutter, a chop saw and a big heavy duty vise.

"Yep," said Allan. "We decided not to put the effort into manufacturing oxygen and acetylene. The forge, plasma cutter and electric welders do everything we need."

"I see you've got both TIG and MIG welders," said Will. "What do you use for shield gas?"

"Argon," replied Allan. "It makes up almost one percent of the air and liquefies at the high enough temperature that's it's easy to separate out."

"OK, looks like a pretty nice setup. But other than what you bought years ago before the economy shut down, where does all your metal come from?" asked Will. "Surely you're not mining it around here."

"Hardly," answered Allan. "But there is still a lot of scrap metal to be had. We have a close relationship with an auto wrecker a concession north of here and two side roads to the west."

"You've said you avoid using money, so...barter?" asked Will.

"Not likely—barter's really no different from using money, just more awkward," said Allan. "That kind of trading we reserve for strangers we don't trust, but we'd rather not do it at all. So, nope, like I said, it's a close relationship—essentially they are part of our commune. So they supply what they have that we need, and vice versa. No accounting involved."

"You say 'accounting' like it's a dirty word," said Will.

"One of the dirtiest," said Allan. "A tool of domination, oppression and exploitation."

"I won't argue with that," said Will. "Still, metal is a non-renewable resource—whether you're digging it out of the ground or salvaging it. Won't you run out eventually?"

"Sure," said Allan. "But with some care, eventually can be a really long time, especially since we are not committed to growth. The first thing is to use as little metal as possible. And then to make sure what we make from it is durable, easy to fix and easy to recycle. And nothing gets thrown away. We even sweep up the powder that accumulates behind our grinders and sharpeners, and recycle it."

"Well, it doesn't seem like your 'industrial heartland' is continuously spewing out pollution, anyway," said Will, nodding to the chimneys.

"Of course today is a commune wide holiday so nothing is happening here, but other than that, there are two issues, really," said Allan. "First, we don't need to run our factories continuously to pay off the bank or greedy investors. None of this was built with borrowed money. And our economy, such as it is, is based on demand pull rather than supply push. All our equipment works in batch process mode, and only has to run when we need whatever it produces, and then only to produce just as much as we need.

"Second, we've tailored our processes and equipment to limit the amount of pollution we create when this stuff is running. Starting out with scrap iron instead of iron ore, it's a much cleaner process. Not completely clean, but a lot closer than conventional industry."

"So you've got casting, forging and welding covered here," said Will, stepping back out of the doorway. "What's next?"

"The next building is our machine shop," said Allan, closing the door and leading the way over to another set of double doors in the next building to the north. "It doesn't really have to be here, but it's awfully handy to have it next door to the foundry and forge."

"So... lathes, milling machines, drill presses?" asked Will..

"Sure, all those and more," said Allan, opening one of the doors. "Take a look"

Will stepped up to the door and saw a very nicely set up machine shop, much of the equipment the sort that had still been commercially available a decade before, along with some that had clearly been made here at Porcupine since then.

"Our metal working crew, which got together right at the start of things, back in the spring of 2030, ended up in these two buildings, which we built in '33," said Allan. "They repair broken and worn out tools and machinery and build some new from scratch. Without them, we wouldn't have gotten very far. Even starting out with all of Jack's farm machinery."

Will took note that the machine shop had sheet metal walls as well as roof. "And let me guess," he said, "your machine shop is timber framed with the sheet metal on the outside to protect it from stray sparks from adjacent kilns and furnaces."

"Exactly, the machinery in here is not too likely to start a fire" said Alan, stepping back and closing the door. "Moving on, the next building, with rammed earth walls again, is our ceramics and glass shop. There are a couple of wood fired kilns at the back—it's probably worth taking a look at them."

He led the way around to the east side of the building. "The big one there is where we make bricks and tiles as well large runs of pottery, and the little one is for small runs of fine pottery. Anyway, I don't how much you know about ceramics—it's certainly not my specialty."

"It's something I've always been interested in, but never got a chance to try," said Will.

"Well, I guess we should have a look inside anyway, as a shortcut to the other side, if nothing else, " said Allan. He opened the door in the east wall of the building and led the way inside. Will followed, shutting the door behind them. "We had one amateur potter with us from the start and a couple of professionals join us in '32 and a glass blower in '33. Most of what's here is stuff they brought with them. You should have a talk with them this evening.

"About all I can tell you is there are a couple of electric kilns, a glass blowing furnace and another for melting glass to cast it.Plus all the other equipment that's needed for this kind of work. The electric kilns give you more precise control of temperature but the elements wear out, and we don't have a source of the metals needed to make new ones. We've got spares, but they will eventually get used up. Gas and liquid fuels are in short supply, so the plan is to switch over to electric arcs for a heat source—a project still under development."

"Looks good to me," said Will. "Can you make porcelain insulators? For electrical use, you know."

"I do," said Allan. "We don't actually have the right kind of clay locally for porcelain, but we make a type of glazed stoneware insulator that works pretty well."

"You have deposits of clay here on the commune land?" asked Will.

"Yeah..." said Allan. "Not the very best clay for pottery work, but far from the worst either. It is a non-renewable resource though, so we have to be careful how we use it. Broken pottery can be glued back together or ground up and mixed with clay to make new pottery. Makes it go farther and actually better to work with too. So like metal, with some care, clay can be made to go a long way."

"Moving on?" said Will, gesturing to the door in the west wall of the building.

"You bet," said Allan and led the way outside. "The next building to the north is the one I share with the rest of the electrical crew."

This was another structure similar to the machine shop.

"It's divided into three parts," said Allan. "At the south end is a room containing the main power supply for this whole complex. A 600V, three phase, 50 KW generator that powers the heavier equipment, and a 25 KW split phase 120/240V generator for the smaller equipment that needs that sort of power. Both are driven by uniflow steam engines with wood fired boilers. At the north end is a 50 KW DC generator driven by a steam turbine and another wood fired boiler, which powers the Acheson furnace in the chem crew's hot shop, where we produce graphite and silicon carbide for abrasives.

"In the middle is the shop I share with the rest of the power crew, where we build and repair electrical equipment. Motors, transformers, switches, circuit breakers—the kind of thing you used to work on, but on a much smaller scale."

"Now that I'd like to see," said Will.

Allan led the way to the door of the electrical shop and they spent a few minutes looking around inside, and then had a peek at each of the generator rooms.

"This really is impressive," said Will. "The more so since I recognize most of the equipment and know what it's used for. Are you still using digital test equipment, or have you switched back to the old style analog stuff?"

"Some of both," said Allan. "the digital equipment itself is pretty tough and long lasting, but batteries are no longer available, so we've had to set up power supplies to make them work off AC power and they aren't very portable. Eventually, the solid state stuff will wear out and we can't replace it. We've been working on analog meters with fairly sensitive movements, and vacuum tube voltmeters where more sensitivity is needed. Not that hard, it turns out. And doable with the technologies we have at hand."

"Well, they got along just fine with analog meters until the last quarter of the twentieth century," said Will."I could sure spend longer here, but I guess we'd better move on. What's next?"

They exited the electrical shop and again walked northward.

"These two buildings are the realm of our chem crew," said Allan."The first is the chemical hot shop and the second is the 'chem kitchen' where they cook up a great many things. Soap, alcohols, oils and greases, dyes, paints and varnishes, rubber, glues and resins, even some pharmaceuticals."

The first was another rammed earth building. The top of a fractional distillation tower was visible over it. Allan gestured toward this structure. "We don't have any crude oil to refine, but we cook a bunch of different gases and liquids out of wood and use that refinery tower to separate them."

The second building was another steel clad, wood framed building, without the chimneys, but with several pipe stacks penetrating the roof.

Allan walked over to the door in the west side of the hot shop, opened it and stepped in, followed by Will. "To the right is the Acheson furnace I already mentioned. And the rest of this stuff is various reaction vessels for making stuff that needs heat and pressure."

"Did you say you make rubber here?" asked Will.

"I did indeed," answered Allan. "There are just too many things we couldn't make without rubber, so we decided we had to find a way. Rubber trees are out, of course, due to our cold climate, and there is a fungus that is killing them off worldwide these days anyway. But dandelions produce latex too, and one species, the Russian dandelion, is especially good at it. We grow a few acres of it and produce a few hundred pounds of rubber every year from the latex in the roots."

"Amazing," said Will. "I can remember hearing people say that our technology was dependent on a complex, interconnected, global web and once it fell apart, we'd be back to the stone age or medieval times at the very least. Doesn't look like that has happened here."

"Yeah, I've heard people spouting similar nonsense," said Allan, "mainly because they had no idea how anything worked— it all just seemed like magic to them. Knowing how to make stuff is the hard part. It took hundreds if not thousands of years to figure that out in the first place. But once you've got it, and the will to hang onto it..."

"Great things can be done, eh?" said Will.

"Yeah. Dad used to talk about 'self contained suites of technologies' that support each other," said Allan. "You don't have to have the whole of early twenty first century tech to still hang on to some pretty useful stuff. As we've done here.

"We decided that we wanted to have certain things tech wise. And it turned out that each of those things required a certain minimum set of technologies, given the raw materials we have available, to make it possible. And typically each of those technologies required a further set. It might seem like there would be no end to that, but in fact, many of the end products we wanted were supported by the same underlying technologies, so the cascade didn't get out of hand."

"OK, I think I see what you mean," said Will. "Say you decided you couldn't get by without sharp, metal edged tools. The simplest way to do that would be using high carbon steel. Lots of scrap steel around to salvage, charcoal to fire your foundry, silicon carbide for abrasives to sharpen the blades, and so on. I see you have all that in hand. But there must be some technologies that were just too much of a reach...?"

"For sure. We've settled on what amounts to an early twentieth century level of technology," said Allan. "There are a few things we just had to reconcile ourselves to doing without. Solid state electronics is one example. And all the things that cascade out from that. Computers, cell phones, some of the medical tech from the late twentieth and early twenty first centuries. Even relatively simple things like LED lighting and power diodes. We stocked up on those and use them very carefully, so as to make them last."

"Do you think that will ever change?" asked Will.

"Well, we aren't pushing too hard in that direction here at Porcupine," said Allan. "But the newer communes often specialize in one high tech area rather than being generalists like us. I hope one of them will eventually manage to produce some of the simpler types of solid state electronics."

"There'd be quite a market for that," said Will.

"Probably," said Allan. "But reviving a market based economy is not something we're interested in. Whether facilitated by money or barter, as I was saying, we avoid trade like the plague. But we do like to do things that can be helpful to others. I know it sounds pretty simple, but maybe that's why it works so well. With the profit motive gone, people have no real reason to take advantage of each other. Some of the people you'll meet at supper may be able to explain it better than I can."

"OK. Not that I'm doubting what you say, but a deeper understanding might be useful," said Will. "In Inverpen we're only now beginning to get our heads wrapped doing without money and not keeping track of accounts. Some people just worship those ideas and can't seem to let them go."

"Yep, when you've grown up immersed in capitalism, that's a big step to take," said Allan. "Sure simplifies life, though."

"I can see that," said Will.

Allan closed the door of the hot shop and they walked over to have a look in the chem kitchen.

Will had a quick look around inside. "Looks very impressive, though I must say I don't have a clue about what most of this stuff does."

"Me neither," said Allan. "Another time, I am sure the chem crew would be glad to clue you in."

Back outside, Will looked to the north and noticed there was a gap and then more buildings. "Are those buildings part of your industrial setup too?"

"That's our abattoir, tannery and our flax and hemp processing facilities. Many of us don't eat as much meat as we did before coming here, but it is still an important part of our diet. And leather and other animal products are critical parts of those tech suites—the basis of things we are not willing to do without. All of that stuff is pretty smelly, so that's why it is even more isolated," said Allan. "If you look past the tannery, towards the woodlot at the back of this farm you'll see our sawmill and primary firewood drying and storage facility."

"A major part of your operation, I take it, since most of your power comes from firewood," said Will.

"Yes indeed," said Allan. "And we make a lot of things from wood too. Let's not walk all the way back there today, though."

"OK, where to then?" asked Will.

Allan turned and pointed toward the bank barn. "Looks like the milking crew are heading out to bring in the cows and ewes. We should join them and have a look at the north side of the barn and then what's on the east side of it. That'll brings us closer to where we will be eating supper, as well."

Will followed Allan's gesture and saw that three young people had just come out of the big door on the east side of the barn.

"Sounds good to me," said Will. "Let's give them a hand."


Coming soon, episode 14, the tour continues.


Maintaining the lists of links that I've been putting at the end of these posts in getting cumbersome, so I have decided to just include a link to the Porcupine section of the Site Map, which features links to all the episodes I've published thus far.

Friday, 16 June 2017

Collapse Step by Step, Part 2: End Points

Kincardine Harbour and Lighthouse, June 16, 2017

In a recent post I talked about how we can expect the collapse of our civilization to be slow and bumpy—uneven geographically, unsteady chronologically and unequal socially. But I was deliberately vague about what's going to happen first, where collapse will go from there and where it will end up. I suspect many of my readers found this rather unsatisfying—I know I did. In this and my next few posts I'll be getting down to the "nitty-gritty" details of collapse.

Number one on that list is that collapse is already happening, and has been since the early 1970s, when oil production in the continental United States peaked and America's shiny new world empire began to crumble.

We'll get back to that soon, but today I want to talk about the end point of the process. Or rather, I should say "end points", since I don't expect things will decline to the same level across the whole planet. Allowing for that, where will we be when collapse is complete and the dust has settled? That's hard to say for several reasons.

First, there is no such thing as a "natural state" to return to. Our hunter-gatherer ancestors were not living in harmony with nature, indeed nature doesn't live in harmony with itself. Nature, and human society within it, are dissipative structures—never in balance, relying on inputs of energy and materials to maintain them in a steady state. Death is the only real equilibrium state such structures have access to, and even after death decay continues to change things.

For the last few hundred years, the energy bonanza of fossil fuels has propelled our civilization to hitherto unheard of heights, a "steady" state chiefly characterized by growth. Collapse will entail a significant energy decline as we give up fossil fuels and nuclear fission as energy sources. We'll be left with solar energy, including its indirect forms (biomass, wind and falling water), and in a few locations things like geothermal and tidal energy, to the extent that we have the wherewithal to access them.

The quantity and quality of energy available will determine, among other things, the kind of energy infrastructure that can be built and maintained. And the kind of energy infrastructure we can support will determine the quantity and quality of energy that will be available. When everyone in a group is struggling just to get enough food to stay alive, there aren't enough spare manhours to work on energy projects beyond obtaining food itself, our most basic energy source. But as things periodically get better, a few tinkerers will have time to get some previously abandoned infrastructure working again. So I expect there will be a good deal of bouncing up and down as this dissipative system works its way toward a new, more or less steady state determined by the lower availability of energy. And because there are different amounts of energy and materials available in different areas, they will end up in different states.

Second, climate change also makes it hard to predict what things will be like when the collapse dust settles. There is a significant lag built into climate change and even after we quit adding CO2 to the atmosphere it will take decades at least before the warming process stops and begins to reverse. It will possibly be hundreds or even thousands of years before things reach a new normal. In the meantime, the climate will keep changing and behaving erratically. So it is hard to say which parts of the world and how much of it will be able to support human life. Even the level of energy use and technology in areas where people do live will be effected by changing climate.

Third, social organization will degrade as collapse progresses and do so in chaotic and unpredictable ways.

Having said all this, I am still feeling adventurous and I think there are some things that can be predicted—that are obvious enough that even an old tradesman like me can make them out.

Population

It's my guess that the human population will settle out at around a few hundred million. This may seem odd to many of my readers.

The UN's population experts say that our population will be between 9 and 10 billion by the middle of the century and then, due to the ever spreading demographic transition things will peak out between 10 and 11 billion before the end of the century. But this assumes that we will find a way not just to feed all these people, but to bring them prosperity in order to lower the birth rate. It's nothing but a dream.

The most realistic estimates I read say we are already in overshoot to the tune of 150%—that would mean paring our 7.5 billion back below 5 billion to get out of overshoot. The demise of oil based agriculture and large scale international shipping will reduce the number of people that our planet can support to a significantly lower number, I suspect around 2 billion. But we must also remember that climate change and various other eco-disasters are going to reduce the planet's carrying capacity even further, and thus I say a few hundred million if things go moderately well. I would be surprised to see the population settles out to more than 1 billion and shocked if it was less than 10 million.

There's nothing really special about these numbers—I certainly don't think there is any such thing as an ideal number of people. Like any successful species, we will always tend to maximize our numbers as far as our environment allows. But with a damaged planet and the high quality, easily accessible fossil fuels gone, there will only be so much we can do.

OK, clearly I'm talking about a significant decline in population. Where are all those extra people going to go?

We are going to see further lowering of birth rates in the developed world, especially as the economy continues to contract and people get discouraged as they did in Russia following the collapse of the USSR. Then we'll see rising death rates, first in the developing world and finally everywhere. Things will fall below the new, reduced carrying capacity and then recover, bouncing up and down a few times until a more or less steady state is reached.

Famine, pandemic and war will all contribute to this. But we tend to forget that we are all going to die anyway, at some point. If that schedule gets moved forward somewhat it can make a big difference and not just to the individual. Over a period of generations even small decreases in birth rate or increases in death rate can make for large changes in population.

In some areas, including, but not limited to the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and the American Southwest, desertification will continue and eventually take the decline in population all the way to zero. That is not just due to lack of water, but also due to extremely high temperatures, not so much on average but in the form of heat waves.

Similarly, due to rising sea level and more frequent and violent storm surges, much of the area currently near sea level will be submerged and people will be forced to move inland to higher elevations. In developed areas (and there are a great many of them near sea level) every effort will be made to stave off the rising seas, to hang on as long as possible, but due to economic contraction, energy decline and continued rising seas, those effort will eventually fail.

Unreliable weather will make most ways of life more difficult than they are now. It's tempting to say that rural people who are still engaged in various forms of subsistence agriculture will simply carry on as at present. And that will be true, where the climate co-operates. Where it doesn't they too will be forced to migrate to in search of greener pastures.

Some countries import much of their food, and couldn't switch over to growing it even if they desperately needed to. They are faced with a crisis when the price of food goes up and will be faced with an even larger one when oil supply problems make international transportation prohibitively expensive or downright unfeasible.

Migration, whether it is spurred by climate, economics or conflict will be the defining feature of the next few decades and will itself be the source of much conflict. Even the most welcoming of countries will eventually be overwhelmed with refugees, who will back up into ever growing refugee camps behind various choke points. Of course, some will not make it as far as the camps and for some of those who do, the camps will eventually prove to be death traps.

It is also pretty clear to me that large cities with many millions of people, that rely on modern transportation systems to supply them with the necessities of life, are not going to be viable. They will fall apart in various unpleasant ways and we'll end up living in much smaller communities.

Energy

Some of the energy end points here are pretty easy to predict: we won't end up getting any significant amount of energy from fossil fuels and none from nuclear fission. I don't believe we'll ever achieve nuclear fusion as a practical power source, and if we do, we won't hang on to it for long.

Some (chiefly climate change deniers) will point to coal as an energy source with centuries of supply left. But a closer look shows that peak coal is nearer than we think, and much of the remaining coal is of low quality—not a good source of surplus energy. No doubt there will be a surge in coal use as the availability of oil and natural gas diminishes, but then the same thing will happen with coal.

We'll be solar powered again, as we were for all but the last bit of our history and all of our prehistory. And most of that will be solar power in its indirect forms: biomass (including food), wind and falling water. Solar photovoltaics and large electricity generating wind turbines will be beyond the reach of the available technology for almost everyone. Even solar thermal energy will be quite rare because of the amount of glass required. Sure, you can get the kind of thermal energy required for large scale glass making from charcoal or probably even from wood gasification. But if heat is what you need that solar power installation for, it would be better to use the biomass directly instead.

In most areas human and animals muscles, powered by food, will once again will be the main source of mechanical energy. These will be supplemented by wind mills and waterwheels. Only rarely will there been enough fuel of any sort available to burn in heat engines. Burning biomass will be the main source of heat. And overall there will be much less energy available than we have access to today, perhaps by a factor of 10. That's on the average, of course. My background with Ontario's electrical utility leads me to think it may be possible to do much better than this in a some areas, harnessing falling water to generate electricity using fairly simple technology. Such set ups have quite a high EROEI, producing generous amounts of surplus energy. This is what got the province of Ontario off to its start in the late 1800s and early 1900s as Canada's industrial heartland. Admittedly, the thermal energy cost of steel reinforced concrete is such that large dams won't be feasible, but there are quite a number of locations around the world where hydro power can, and frequently has been, developed with relatively small and simple civil engineering projects.

Keeping such projects running or refurbishing them after they have been shut down or abandoned for a while will be much easier than the development process that went on in the 1800s.

Technology

When people hear about my interest in collapse, they frequently ask, "How far down do you think we'll go?" They are thinking in the sense of what historical level of development will we descend to.

But it is overly simplistic to say that we'll "go back" to a certain period in the past.

Things have changed since then and you simply can't go back. The environment in particular has been damaged in ways that would make many historical lifestyles unfeasible. There is much to be said for the hunter/gatherer lifestyle, for instance, but it requires a high level of skill and detailed knowledge of the area one is living in, things that very, very few of us have or could learn quickly if we suddenly needed them. And stocks of wild game and food plants have been depleted so much in most areas that hunting and gathering simply isn't feasible.

On the other hand, unlike our ancestors, we already know that a great many things are possible. Even if we find them temporarily beyond our reach, re-acquiring them will be much easier than developing them from scratch was in the first place. Where collapse has been fairly complete it will still be possible to salvage many useful things—knowledge, tools and materials. Where collapse is less devastating we'll keep many things working for a long time even if we've lost the ability to recreate them from scratch. And because our population will be much lower, there will be a great deal of left over stuff per capita and, I suspect, a brisk business in refurbishing and repurposing that stuff.

Remember, I've been saying I expect a slow collapse, taking several decades. That's slow compared to what some expect to happen, but pretty quick if you're think in terms of, for example, how long steel exposed to the elements takes to turn to rust. I've heard people saying that in twenty years after a fast collapse all the iron on the planet will have rusted away to nothing and survivors would be using stone tools. From my own personal experience with farm machinery abandoned in the open, I can say that even after fifty years all that has happened is the formation of a patina of rust on any part thicker than a few millimeters. Unprotected sheet metal goes fairly fast, but thicker sections are more durable. Since people will start collecting scrap metal and storing it out of the weather, it seems clear to me that our civilization will leave a legacy of refined metals that should supply post-collapse metal workers with most of what they need for the next few centuries.

So, we'll see some strange mixtures of different technological levels. I expect we'll see even the few remaining post-collapse hunter/gathers using tools made of iron instead of stone.

The limiting factor will be energy. The level of technology that can be supported is determined by the decisions you make about what to do with the surplus energy you have available to you. Note that's not energy, but surplus energy. Problems with low quality hydrocarbons, diffuse and intermittent sunlight, unpredictable wind and so forth mean that we'll have much less surplus energy than we have today. Given the unpredictable climate and weather that we'll be coping with, we'll probably make some fairly conservative decisions—a full belly comes first, especially if you are working hard, and most of us will be.

But once we have electricity, all sorts of manufacturing possibilities open up. Decisions will have to be made about how much of a society's available surplus should be put into setting up the infrastructure necessary to produce electricity and what kind of manufacturing to pursue. Many of these areas where hydroelectric power is available may be able to retain a level of technology roughly equivalent to the early 1900s, for a few million people all told.

Some will no doubt be surprised by what they see as my overly optimistic outlook. There is a large part of our population for whom most technology is essentially magic—they just have no idea how it works or how to make it work if it was broken and they had to fix it on their own. For them, moving down to anything short of our current level of technology is a total collapse. When things start to break down these folk will be out of luck.

But there are many other people who do have a pretty good grasp of how one or more areas of technology work and how to keep them working. As long as you don't have your heart set on the latest high tech toys, it really isn't that hard.

Do I think anyone will be able to hang onto or recover the ability to manufacture semiconductors, computers and possibly even an internet of some sort? The kind of worldwide manufacturing network we have today is not absolutely necessary to attain to scaled down versions of this sort of technology. But I think it is fair to say that it will be rare if attainable at all, and concentrating on this sort of technology will probably prove to be a mistake.

What we'll need to adopt is "appropriate tech"—technology that is small-scale, decentralized, labor-intensive instead of energy intensive, energy-efficient, environmentally sound, and locally autonomous (not critically dependent on materials or tools that cannot be made or salvaged locally).

"Local" and "decentralized" come up in this discussion because transportation without fossil fuels will be much more arduous than it is today.

There are a number of other technology related areas that are big enough subjects for another post and will have to wait until then:

  • How will we manage to feed ourselves when fossil fuel based agriculture is no longer possible? There is no doubt in my mind that, with a sufficiently small number of people to feed, this will be possible.
  • What will be the future of medicine? One thing I am sure of is that even though many people will turn to alternative medicines, they will not be any more effective than they ever have been. In other words, not at all.
  • Genetic engineering has the potential to be very useful in the kind of future that lies ahead of us. I know, I've said this before. It's soon time I explained what I mean and why I am not afraid of genetically engineered organism that are intended to be beneficial. Coming soon in another post.... Of course, there is also the possibility that GE will be weaponized, and that's another story altogether.

Many people are concerned about the legacy of toxic hazards (chemical, biological and nuclear) that modern technology is leaving to future generations. This is mainly a result of fear and misinformation, which often takes the form of a monotonic view of toxicity. That is, the fear that if something is toxic in large doses, it will eventually prove to be toxic in even the tiniest doses, given long enough exposure. The scientific consensus simply doesn't support this, telling us instead that the dose determines the poison. Many things people are afraid of, including radiation and pesticides, are quite harmless in small doses and the levels allowed by current regulations include a ridiculously large margin for safety.

Social Organization

In many ways the level of social organization retained during a collapse is a better indicator of the degree of collapse than the level of technology.

I think it is clear that there will be much less organization, and that it will be in simpler in nature and less centralized. Another major defining feature of the years ahead (along with migration) will be the breakup of various political and economic federations, until the remaining political entities are small enough that they can hope to work with the existing transportation, communication and information infrastructure and the limited energy available to power it.

Many writers, when talking about collapse, fall into pipe dreams about their favorite political and social systems rising to a higher level of prominence that they currently enjoy, and the ideologies that they oppose falling on hard times. I find this quite improbable.

There will be a greater degree of isolation between communities than we have today and a lack of the wherewithal for these communities to force their ideas on others. Because of this, "dissensus" will be easier to do than it is today and many different approaches will be tried. This is a good thing—there is a chance that at least some of these approaches will be successful adaptations to the new conditions.

Having said all this about the end points of collapse, I should make it clear that the paths we'll take to get there are anything but straightforward—they will have some interesting twists and turns that I think most people aren't expecting. That will be a recurring theme in my next few posts.


Links to the rest of this series of posts:
Political Realities / Collapse Step by Step / The Bumpy Road Down